CAPITAL_edited.jpg

Professor Forrest Capie

Cass Business School, City University of London

In ‘Hostile Money’ Paul Wilson brings a different perspective to the study of money and draws on historical experience to illustrate the two-way relationship money has with society. Money can be used consciously and possibly aggressively to shape matters or it can itself be the consequence of, for example, social changes. Wilson discusses in a large coverage over time and space: the effect of social movements on monetary systems; the impact of war on monetary systems; and the interplay between private and state activities and aims.  But there are many other interesting aspects of the story such as counterfeiting, both private and state, or of smuggling and so on.  This is a book full of interest for all kinds of audiences.

John PlenderAuthor of Capitalism: Money, Morals and Markets.Paul Wilson's Hostile Money is an extraordinarily wide ranging reviewof the relations between war, revolution and money - an essential andcompelling guide to a fascinating area where economics  andgeopolitics collide.

Hostile Money

 ‘Hostile Money: Currencies in Conflict’ was published in May and comments from people whose judgement I trust have been encouraging. The idea for this book – or rather, a somewhat larger book – came to mind in 2011 after some 17 years with the British banknote printer De La Rue. During those years I was fortunate enough, not only to work with some really good people, but also to observe at close quarters what was happening to money under the stress of conflict. Business trips to Sarajevo in the wake of the Dayton accord, to Kabul following the 2001 American- led invasion and to Kuwait in the run up to the launch of the Second Gulf War, followed by a visit to Baghdad after that invasion involved discussions with decision makers responsible for the introduction of new currencies following conflict.

Paola Subacchi 

Professor of International Economics, University of London's Queen Mary Global Policy Institute

Paul Wilson, Hostile Money: Currencies in Conflict, The History Press, 2019.

I am intrigued by the numerous links between money, power, and conflict, but I am also frustrated by how the topic is typically treated – mainly by international-relations specialists, because economists generally steer clear of it. This well-researched book, which includes both historical examples and contemporary evidence, avoids those pitfalls, while offering a fresh perspective on some important dynamics.

Project Syndicate Website Book Recommendations 2019

Robert Pringle

https://www.themoneytrap.com/review-of-hostile-money/


Impressively erudite, he never lets his command of detail hold up the story, so that the reader is swept up in the stormy history of money’s role in some of the greatest social, political and military conflicts from ancient Rome to the cyber warfare of the 21st century.

Wilson successfully explores the inter-connections between major social movements/events/conflicts on the one hand and money/monetary systems one the other. 

The author wears his scholarship lightly. He has no ideological axes to grind. He avoids getting bogged down in sterile debates  for example about monetarist versus Keynesian interpretations of the Great Depression or other much-debated periods of 20th century economic history. He rightly views money as a key social institution, responding to political, military and economic pressures but having its own dynamic. Money stands ready to make its contribution to progress, given the chance to do so. It is part of the effort to better the human condition. This combination of qualities make the book a pleasure to read.

9780750990790_edited_edited.jpg
Podcast on Iran with Pequod Advisory Group -->
Book review panel with Currency News and Warren Coats -->
Interviewed by Peter Day for the Stationer's company -->

Currency for an Independent Scotland ?

News that polls in Scotland are showing a significant increase in support for independence encourages me to revisit the question of what the currency arrangements might be for an independent Scottish Currency.

At the time of the last referendum, the declared preferred position of the SNP on the question of Scotland’s future currency in the event of independence was that of a pound sterling currency union with the rest of the United Kingdom. The SNP insisted that a continuing currency union would minimise disruption for businesses both north and south of the border. Tactically, it would have the advantage of allaying the concerns of so-called ‘swing-voters’ who had doubts about the wisdom of severing Scotland from a currency system which had worked well for it.

 

However, the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the conservative led Westminster government at that time, George Osborne, ruled out any currency union between Scotland and the United Kingdom, declaring that currency unions were ‘fraught with difficulty.’ In the event, the result of the 2014 referendum was a rejection of the independence proposal by the electorate and much of the analysis of the outcome pointed towards the uncertainty surrounding the currency of an independent Scotland as one of the key reasons for the rejection of independence. One poll indicated that more than half of those who voted against independence cited the currency question as one of the three concerns uppermost in their minds. 

 

As discussion of a second independence referendum gathered pace after the EU/Brexit referendum, so did public consideration of the currency question.

A new plan, put forward in May 2018 by the Sustainable Growth Commission which the SNP had established in 2016, recognised the importance of the currency question in the 2014 referendum. It set out the intention of moving after independence towards a new Scottish currency pegged to the pound sterling after a  possibly extended transitional period during which the pound sterling would also be used in parallel( albeit without the benefits of a formal currency union with the rest of the United Kingdom).  The plan also envisages the transfer of sterling held by Scottish banks at the Bank of England to back their own issue of Scottish notes to a central bank in Scotland at independence (although the deposits would continue to be the property of the Scottish banks). It accepts that Scottish banks might continue to issue currency for Scotland – in parallel with Sterling - until such time as the central bank would be ready to issue its own currency, implying that , at that point , commercial banknote issue would end.[1]

But , the announcement in the run-up to the 2014 referendum by two of the three Scottish note – issuing  banks – the Bank of Scotland ( owned by the British bank Lloyds) , and the Royal Bank of Scotland -  that their registered headquarters would be moved to London in the event of a vote for independence  must raise the question as to whether they would agree to shift their reserves north following independence.

 

Commercial banks would of course make their decisions on commercial grounds and that would mean minimising risk. The power of the Bank of England as lender of last resort and the Treasury as a safety net was well demonstrated at the time of the 2008 credit crunch. The cost then of recapitalising the Royal Bank of Scotland amounted to twice the estimated GDP of an independent Scotland.  If indeed they refused to move their sterling reserves north, would the Scottish government permit the commercial banks’ currency to circulate without adequate cover held in Scotland? Almost certainly not.  The decision by the Royal Bank of Scotland Group in the past 48 hours to rebrand its parent group NATWEST may be an indicator of that bank not only severing its brand from the unfortunate events of 2008 , but also as an early step in repositioning itself for possible Scottish independence.

 

A plausible scenario to emerge from a transitional period of parallel circulation of sterling and commercial notes could see the former hoarded as a store of value while the latter would be used as a medium of exchange. To counter this possibility, confidence in commercial notes could be underpinned by a clear commitment to convert them for sterling – or indeed for any new Scotpound. But would the population then rush to convert their commercially issued notes for sterling? Provided 100% sterling reserve cover is held in Scotland, such a ‘run ‘on the banks could be managed (even if Scottish commercial banknotes would pretty quickly disappear out of circulation).  But the risk would not be manageable in the event that the banks insist on keeping their Sterling south of the border.

 

In the medium to longer term, the prospects for any future Scotpound backed with sterling will depend on Scotland’s ability to earn enough sterling from its trade with the rest of the United Kingdom. However, the balance of trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK is not in Scotland’s favour. Thus, it would struggle to earn enough sterling to back the Scottish pound in a currency board arrangement for an economy which the SNP must hope will expand post- independence.

 

There are sound lessons for the SNP to learn from the experiences of Ireland and Estonia following those countries’ independence. But the SNP strategy for a post- independence monetary regime begs as many questions today as it did at the time of the last referendum.

23rd July 2020

 

This article is a much – edited section from my forthcoming book on National Independence and Monetary Sovereignty.

[1] The Sustainable Growth Commission – The Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation for an Independent Scotland – C 1.23

Sir Thomas Fairfax’s Copy of Froissart’s Chronicles

Sir Thomas Fairfax, Lord General of the parliamentary armies during the civil war in England, was an extraordinary character.  A professional soldier who, prior to the Civil War was knighted by Charles I for his role in the First Bishops’ War against the Scots, Fairfax and his father, Ferdinando, second Lord Fairfax of Cameron, declared for Parliament at the start of the civil war. The Fairfaxes, father and son, emerged as leading parliamentary commanders in Yorkshire and the son went on to rise to the highest command in the parliamentary army, playing key roles at the battles of Marston Moor and Naseby as well as at the siege of Colchester, all three engagements proving major points in Parliament’s progress towards eventual success.

Fairfax’s dedication to the parliamentary cause and courage on the battlefield was outstanding and evidenced by the extraordinary number of wounds he received. Amongst religious zealots in the parliamentary army Fairfax became known as the ‘Rider of the White Horse’, a biblical reference from the book of Revelations to a white horse and “he that sat upon him was called Faithful and True, and in righteousness he doth judge and make war". At the same time, the defeated King acknowledged Fairfax as a man of honour. As a member of the minor aristocracy, Fairfax was not a proponent of a complete overthrow of the social order and, along with other army grandees, took steps to suppress the leveller movement which had grown in the ranks of the army.

Fairfax' Froissart - Ownership Inscripti

Image 1 - Ownership Inscription

When Fairfax refused to sign the King’s death warrant and retired from public office on the execution of the King, some parliamentary supporters felt he had compromised his commitment to the cause. Indeed, when General Monk marched south from Scotland to impose the restoration of Charles II in 1660, Fairfax supported his march through Yorkshire, confirming for many parliamentarians their suspicions that he was a trimmer. And yet many Royalists believed he could have done more to save the executed King. By treading his own path between the more zealous parliamentary views and the most loyal royalists, Fairfax managed to damage his reputation in both camps.

However, it is the marginalia that points towards this book having been used by ‘Black Tom’ very much as a retrospective justification of his own actions and beliefs which had been so controversial. On page 254 of the first volume, (image 2) we see the marginal note ‘A commendation of Sir John Chandos, Regent in France for the King of England’. This is the only instance amongst the marginalia in which Fairfax singles out an individual for his qualities. The original French text describes Chandos, thought to be the mastermind behind key victories at Crecy and Poitiers, as ‘chivalrous, courteous, liberal, gracious, generous, valiant, wise, faithful in all cases’. In singling out Chandos in this way, Fairfax was patently trying to draw a parallel with his own military successes and presumably identifying with Chandos’ chivalric reputation. Later marginal comments refer to the capture of Calais by Edward III (image 3) and to the Jacquerie uprising, events which he would have seen as paralleling his own siege of Colchester and suppression of Levellers.

I am inclined to conclude that in retirement Black Tom looked back at 

the events of Edward III’s campaigns in France and sought to draw parallels with his own career and conduct.  Other books which once belonged to Fairfax may similarly contain marginalia giving clues to his own perception of himself.

 

Fairfax – also known as ‘Black Tom’ - was a lover of books and took steps to protect libraries in Oxford and York from looting. He inherited a substantial library from his father and bequeathed 28 manuscripts to the Bodleian. In retirement he wrote verse and hired the poet Andrew Marvell as tutor to his daughter. Among the books which belonged to him is a copy of Froissart’s Chronicles, now bound in two volumes, printed at Lyon in 1559 and 1560 by Jean De Tournes, the printer to the King of France. Reproduced here (Image 1) is the ownership inscription of ‘Sir Thomas Fairfax of Denton, Knight’. It has been suggested that this book may originally have belonged to Black Tom’s grandfather who died in 1640 or indeed his great grandfather who died in 1598/99, both named Thomas. However, the ownership inscription here suggests to me a later hand than that which the Great grandfather would have had.  It could certainly be the ownership inscription of the grandfather, but if it is, it would have been inscribed late in his life judging by the style of writing. Indeed, it would suggest that late in life he had adopted a style of writing different from that which he would have learnt in his youth. Overall, the ownership inscription seems to me to be most probably that of Black Tom.

Fairfax%20-%20Froissart_edited.jpg

Image 2 - A commendation of Sir John Chandos

Fairfax%204_edited.jpg

Image 3 - Siege of Calais

December 2020

Polydromic – the meaning

Some people may be as surprised as I am that it is impossible to find a definition for ‘polydromic’ at any of the on-line dictionaries.

As a noun, Polydrom has existed for at least 5 years and will be recognized by anyone finding this website. Created from the Greek prefix ‘Poly’ – meaning ‘multiple’ or ‘many’ and Dromos – meaning ‘route’ or’ path’. 

So, Polydrom = anything or any place with many routes leading to or from it. Polydromic –   the ability to attain, enter  or exit anything or any place by multiple routes.

For example:

The means to great wealth are polydromic.

The opportunities for recreational escapism are polydromic

Polydromic approaches to education and learning must be the aspiration of any flexible and civilized society

Central park is a recreational polydrom.

The internet is now the ultimate polydrom of knowledge

Why this seems to have escaped the attention of the lexicographers is puzzling.

Biography

Paul-Wilson.jpg

After careers in the Army and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office I joined De La Rue PLC, the banknote and passport printers in 1994. Over my more than 20 years there in various roles including those of Sales Director of the Currency Division, Managing Director of the Identity Systems business, I travelled to Central Asia, the Middle East, Transcaucasia, the Caribbean, the Balkans, Western Europe and both North and South America. Latterly, eight years in the role of Director of Government Relations presented an unique opportunity to observe the Westminster operation at close hand before it finally descended into its current tragi-comic drama.

Notionally in retirement since 2015, the reality proves otherwise. Accepting an invitation to join the staff of the British Iranian Chamber of Commerce in 2016 when American policy towards Iran had eased, the past year has been spent adjusting to the present US administration’s U- turn.

Apart from a brazen promotion of my own book(s), I hope that this website will also provide the opportunity to share thoughts on others’ books and to invite friends to share their thoughts with me.

 
Contact Me

Thanks for submitting!